Sean M. Kirkpatrick

Only a very small percentage of UAP reports display anomalous signatures; the majority of objects reported to AARO show mundane characteristics of readily explainable sources.

the majority of unidentified objects reported to Arrow and in our Holdings demonstrate mundane characteristics of readily explainable sources

Of the morphologies AARO tracks, round/spherical 'orbs' account for a little under half of all reported UAP shapes in its database.

the vast majority of what has been reported and what we have data on: a little less than half now, our orbs, round spheres

AARO has zero reported UAP cases in either the maritime/undersea domain or the space domain within its current holdings, despite tracking across all reporting domains, which Kirkpatrick calls notable.

you will note however that I have no space reports and I have no Maritime reports - that is notable

An MQ-9 drone's EO sensor recorded a metallic, spherical orb performing apparent maneuvers in the Middle East in 2022; AARO states it demonstrated no enigmatic technical capabilities and posed no threat to airborne safety, though the case remains under review pending more data.

this is a spherical orb metallic in the Middle East 2022 by an MQ-9... this one in particular, however, I would point out, demonstrated no enigmatic technical capabilities and was no threat to airborne safety

A P-3 surveillance video showing 'three dots' moving erratically, initially reported as an anomalous UAP grouping, was resolved after cross-referencing with Air Traffic Control data: the objects were commercial aircraft on a flight corridor into a major airport, and the apparent erratic motion was sensor jitter from the P-3's own gimbal/platform.

when we went even deeper, looked at Air Traffic Control Data, we were able to match those to aircraft on a major flight Corridor heading into a major airport for landing

Our check Confirmed verbatim against the transcript of the recording of Kirkpatrick's remarks at the same NASA UAP panel meeting (t=38:06-39:07): a P-3 on a training mission picked up 'three dots' that could not be intercepted; the apparent erratic back-and-forth motion was sensor/platform jitter and defocusing; cross-referencing Air Traffic Control data showed the objects were commercial aircraft 'on a major flight Corridor heading into a major airport for landing.' This is Kirkpatrick's own account of an AARO-resolved case, not an independently published case-resolution report with full technical backup, so it carries the reliability of official testimony rather than a peer-reviewed reconstruction.

DoD sensors, unlike NASA's or the intelligence community's, are built and calibrated to identify and target known objects, not to produce scientific measurements, making current DoD UAP holdings poorly suited to rigorous scientific analysis without recalibration.

DOD sensors have one purpose: they are to identify an object that is known and put a weapon on it - that is what they're for

AARO's UAP case holdings grew from roughly 650 cases (as of Kirkpatrick's Senate testimony the prior month) to over 800 cases by this meeting (31 May 2023), with 50-100 new reports typically added per month.

at the time of my open hearing we were at 650 cases-ish, we are now over 800

Roughly 2 to 5 percent of AARO's UAP cases display signatures the office considers possibly anomalous; the rest are resolved or resolvable as mundane.

the numbers that I would say that we see are possibly really anomalous are less than single digit percentages of those, that total database - so maybe two to five-ish percent

AARO is exploring AI/ML techniques for UAP analysis (natural-language processing of pilot reports, target-recognition models to search existing holdings) but has not yet applied any of these for active real-time targeting, except for balloon identification, because it lacks confidence in what target signature to train against.

I have not put anything out there yet... for active targeting in real time because I don't know exactly what I would train it to go look for... except for balloons, right, we're trying to get rid of balloons as quickly as possible

AARO's official definition of 'anomalous' is: anything not readily understandable by the operator or the sensor, e.g. maneuvering against the wind at Mach 2 with no apparent propulsion.

anomalous is anything that is not readily understandable by the operator or the sensor, right, so it is doing something weird

A previously reported case of a UAP appearing to enter the water (a transmedium event) has been determined by AARO to actually be a sensor anomaly, not a real event; AARO plans to publish this finding.

it's um going into the water, which we have, we have shown is not the case - that is actually a sensor anomaly that we've now figured out and we're going to be publishing all that

AARO convened its first 'Five Eyes' (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) forum on UAP data sharing, reporting standards and sensor calibration in the week before this meeting (late May 2023).

I have just held our first five eyes Forum on this subject last week

Our check Confirmed. AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick convened the first 'Five Eyes' (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) UAP forum at the Pentagon on May 24, 2023 (the 'FVEY Inaugural UAP Caucus Working Group'), covering data sharing, reporting standards and sensor calibration -- consistent with 'the week before' this video's May 31, 2023 NASA public meeting, where Kirkpatrick described the forum in almost these terms ('discussions with our partners on data-sharing... what kind of calibration can they help us with').

Sources defensescoop.com

AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick testified to Congress on April 19 that AARO has found no credible evidence to date of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology, or objects defying known physics; unresolved cases remain unresolved primarily for lack of data.

has found no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity off-world technology or objects that defy the known laws of physics while a large number of cases in our holdings remain technically unresolved this is primarily due to a lack of data associated with those cases

Our check Confirmed word for word. Sean Kirkpatrick testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 19, 2023 that 'AARO has found no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology or objects that defy the known laws of physics,' and separately stated that cases resolve into explainable sources when sufficient scientific data exists, implying the unresolved remainder is primarily a data-quality problem. Both the quote and the framing check out against contemporaneous reporting on the hearing.

Sources space.com, airforcetimes.com, armed-services.senate.gov

AARO and University of Utah collaborators published correlation research on environmental reporting factors (sky view, cloud cover, light pollution, tree cover) affecting UAP sighting statistics, with a follow-up paper in progress; Kirkpatrick does not confirm the specific claim that Venus's position above the horizon correlates with a large, statistically significant spike in sightings.

We did do some work... with the University of Utah and my colleagues out there on some correlation math... we looked at things from sky view, cloud cover, light pollution, trees.

The F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter, tested at Area 51, was historically mistaken by observers for an alien spacecraft and helped originate UAP conspiracy narratives.

The F-117, right? State-of-the-art stealth fighter being developed out and tested out in Area 51 and everybody saw it, thought it was a an alien spacecraft.

AARO's first annual report published a global heat map showing UAP-report hotspots concentrated in the western US, which Kirkpatrick attributes to collection bias (sensors are near military test ranges, not evenly distributed).

In the very first annual report that we put out after I stood up AARO, we put that heat map together for this very reason. We have a global heat map. It's on the website.

UAP reporting volume within DoD/IC increased over roughly the prior year because new mandatory reporting orders were issued to all services and combat support agencies -- not because sightings themselves increased proportionally.

My team and I wrote orders with the Joint Staff to all of the services and all of the combat support agencies... you must report if you see something.

By the time Kirkpatrick left AARO, fewer than a couple hundred civilian/FAA UAP reports had been received globally, and many of those resolved to Starlink satellite launches or reentries.

I think by the time I left, it was less than a couple of hundred across the globe. And many of them believe it or not turn into Starlink launches, satellite reentries.

Kirkpatrick states he received more harassment and threats from members of the American public over his AARO findings than he received from Chinese or Russian adversaries during his prior roles as Deputy Director of Intelligence at US Strategic Command and US Space Command.

I had less trouble from Russia and China trying to figure out what I was doing than I have from the American public who's pissed off because I didn't tell them that there were aliens.

The same purported crash material has no documented chain of custody; claimants believe it came from Roswell but cannot substantiate this because provenance was lost through resale.

No provenance... they think it came from the Roswell. Nobody can say for sure because they lost chain of custody. They don't know where it came from. It got bought and sold.

A widely circulated piece of purported crashed-UAP material, analyzed by AARO/a contracted lab, has isotopic ratios consistent only with terrestrial origin, not extraterrestrial.

The isotopic ratios do not support anything other than earth-based.

People promote unverified UAP crash-material or contact claims for reasons including fame, fortune, the desire to claim credit for having influenced legislation (Kirkpatrick says at least three people separately told him they helped ghost-write UAP-related legislation), and sincere but evidence-free belief.

The ability of people to say I helped ghost write the legislation that forced the Pentagon to go do this. I've had three people tell me that.

A later, follow-on Air Force review of the original Project Blue Book validated that Blue Book had followed proper investigative procedure and turned over its findings appropriately.

There was a blue book follow-on report. It's out at NARA... they did an exceptional job.

AARO's Historical Record Report Volume I found no empirical evidence that any UAP sighting represented off-world technology or a classified program not properly reported to Congress.

AARO has not discovered any empirical evidence that any sighting of a UAP represented off-world technology or the existence of a classified program that had not properly reported to Congress.

Our check AARO's Historical Record Report Volume 1 (released March 2024, then-director Sean Kirkpatrick) concludes exactly this: no empirical evidence that any UAP sighting represented off-world technology or a classified USG program engaged in reverse-engineering non-human craft that was not properly reported to Congress. This is corroborated across both provider dossiers as a solid, well-documented finding.

Sources media.defense.gov

No White House or DoD official gave Kirkpatrick guidance, pressure, or pre-approval on what to say or avoid in his public interviews as AARO director.

So did the White House put pressure on me? DoD put pressure? Nobody did. I was told to go do a job and a mission, and that's what we did.

AARO investigated a claim that a military officer physically touched an off-world craft; the officer's own signed, on-the-record statement denied this characterization ('that's not what I was touching').

This alleged military officer who put his hands on that, well, that's how we got tracked down. He put on record, 'No, that's not what I was touching.'

If extraterrestrial life were ever confirmed, jurisdiction would pass to NASA, not DoD or the intelligence community; if such life were judged hostile, an interagency process would escalate the decision to the President, as with other major national-security decisions.

If we had ever come up with actual evidence of extraterrestrial life, over to NASA. Good luck with that. That's your job.

No UAP evidence produced to AARO -- no radar track, no video with intact raw data -- demonstrates a capability that violates known laws of physics.

Nobody has produced any evidence of anything that violates the laws of physics, not a wool shred... Not a radar track, not video with raw data.

Compressed video circulating online cannot be scientifically analyzed for genuine flight anomalies, because compression drops frames and bit depth in ways that can make ordinary motion appear anomalous; Kirkpatrick cites one internal AARO case (soon to be declassified) where this fooled his own team initially.

It turned out, no, it was image compression that made it look like it was doing something it wasn't.

AARO's team is made up of more than three dozen experts, organized into four functional areas: operations, scientific research, integrated analysis, and strategic communications.

The Arrow team of more than three dozen experts is organized around four functional areas: operations, scientific research, integrated analysis, and strategic communications.

AARO was established by DoD in July 2022, and as of the April 2023 hearing had been operating for approximately nine months.

the DoD's establishment of the all domain anomaly resolution office in July of last year.

AARO has found no credible evidence to date of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology, or objects that defy the known laws of physics.

in our research, Arrow has found no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology, or objects that defy the known laws of physics.

About 52% of all UAP reported to AARO are described as round orb/sphere shapes.

Over half, about 52% of what's been reported to us are round orb spheres.

Most AARO-reported UAP sightings occur in the 15,000-25,000 ft altitude range, reflecting where DoD aircraft and sensors operate rather than where UAP activity is necessarily most common.

most of our sightings occur in the 15 to 25,000 ft range. And that is ultimately because that's where a lot of our aircraft are.

AARO's typical reported UAP characteristics: mostly round, 1-4 meters, white/silver/translucent/metallic, altitude 10,000-30,000 ft, apparent velocity stationary to Mach 2, no thermal exhaust usually detected, intermittent radar/radio/thermal signatures.

mostly round mostly 1 to 4 meters white silver translucent metallic 10,000 to 30,000 ft with apparent velocities from stationary to Mach 2. No thermal exhaust usually detected.

The Middle East MQ-9 drone video of an apparent spherical object (via EO sensor) remains an unresolved case due to insufficient data.

It is going to be virtually impossible to fully identify that just based off of that video.

The South Asia MQ-9 case's apparent 'propulsion trail' behind a fast-moving object was a sensor readout/processing artifact (a 'shadow image'), not a real physical trail, and the object itself resolved into the infrared heat signature of a nearby commuter aircraft.

We pulled these apart frame by frame. We were able to demonstrate that that is essentially a readout uh overlap of the image. It's a it's a shadow image, right? It's not real.

As of the hearing (19 April 2023), AARO is tracking over 650 total UAP cases.

So, as of this week, uh we are tracking over total of 650 cases.

AARO's January 2023 public report cited roughly 366 cases, with about half (~150) assessed as likely balloon-like and about two dozen as drones.

the report in January basically said about half of the ones at that time, about 150 were balloon were likely balloon like or something like that.

About half of AARO's roughly 650 cases have been prioritized as showing potentially anomalous/interesting characteristics; of those, roughly 20-30 are about halfway through the five-step analytic process, and only a handful have completed peer review with signed case-closure reports.

I think we we're currently sitting at around if I remember correct, we were around 20 to 30ish are about halfway through that analytic process.

AARO's next quarterly report and its next annual report (moved up by Congress to June/July) will combine a number of outstanding reports into one.

Our next annual report um you all have uh given us uh moved it up to to June July.

Of the small subset of cases showing signatures of advanced technical capability (described as 'single percentages' of the total case population), Kirkpatrick has 'concerning indicators' suggesting some may relate to foreign (Chinese or Russian) capabilities, but no confirmed evidence.

I am concerned about what that nexus is and I indicators that some are related to foreign capabilities.

China is 'on par or ahead' of the US in some emerging technology areas relevant to this threat assessment, and China and Russia are less risk-averse about fielding advancing technical capabilities than the US.

there are emerging capabilities out there that that in many instances Russia and China, well China in particular are on par or ahead of us in some areas, right?

AARO currently operates under Title 10 authorities and states it needs additional authorities for cross-agency collection tasking and counterintelligence work.

There are some authorities that we need. We currently are operating under title 10 authorities but we have um you know good relationships across the other agencies.

As of the hearing, AARO had submitted the first version of its required public-facing safe-disclosure portal for superior approval before Christmas 2022, and had received no response or timeline as of mid-April 2023.

I have uh we submitted the first version of that before Christmas.

AARO has received referrals for and interviewed nearly two dozen witnesses so far under its NDA-safe-disclosure process for UAP witnesses and participants.

We've brought in uh nearly two dozen so far.

During the response to the North American objects incident (February 2023), AARO did not play a decision-making role beyond an initial situational assessment given to Joint Staff leadership; the response decisions themselves were made by the White House.

we did not play a role in what you would respond other than that initial um you know advice on what we are seeing and how we are seeing it.

Roughly half of AARO's staff come from the intelligence community and half from scientific/technical backgrounds; AARO also has liaisons from NASA, FBI, the Air Force Office of Special Investigations (OSI), the military services, and DOE.

The I half of my staff come from the IC. Half of my staff come from uh other scientific and technical backgrounds. I have DOE.

Kirkpatrick states that 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,' attributing the phrase to Carl Sagan in 1979, and adds his own extension that extraordinary claims also require 'extraordinary science.'

In 1979 Carl Sean said extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I would go one step further and I would say extraordinary claims require not only extraordinary evidence but extraordinary science.

NASA's unclassified UAP data study explored whether existing civil sensor platforms (e.g. climate-science satellites) could help detect UAP, but found many such platforms lack sufficient resolution to detect objects in the 1-4 meter size range AARO typically reports.

the resolution of many of the climate science civil um science, you know, civil satellites was much larger than that, which means you'd have a hard time picking out something that's smaller than a pixel.

AARO is exploring public-private partnerships and crowdsourcing as additional future data sources to augment its classified sensor data.

We're exploring public private partnerships ma'am as you know we've talked about in the past to look at is there a way to smartly crowdsource additional data.